In Depth: Project to Beat Back the Sahara Struggles to Take Root, Even With Chinese Expertise

Africa’s Sahel region, located south of the Sahara Desert and stretching from the Atlantic Ocean to the Red Sea, is home to over 140 million people. Despite its significance, the region faces ongoing droughts, widespread hunger, and severe environmental degradation. Over the past century, it has endured three major droughts, contributing to hunger that affected 278 million Africans (one in five people) as of 2022, according to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization[para. 1][para. 2]. Climate change has exacerbated these issues by causing higher temperatures, irregular rainfall, and reduced water availability. Notably, nearly half of Africa’s land suffers from desertification, and Lake Chad, crucial to 30 million people, has shrunk by about 90% in the last 50 years[para. 3].

To combat these challenges, 11 countries launched the Great Green Wall in 2007, aiming to restore 100 million hectares of land, create 10 million jobs, and sequester 250 million tons of carbon by 2030. The UN designated it a “World Restoration Flagship” in 2022. However, by 2020, only about 18% of the planned targets had been achieved[para. 4][para. 5]. China has supported the project with its desertification control expertise, but reaching the 2030 goals remains in question[para. 5].

The concept of large-scale environmental restoration is not new. In 1934, the US initiated a massive tree-planting project to fight the Dust Bowl, and China started a major campaign in 1978 to reduce desert encroachment. The Sahel initiative gained traction after the 1984 famine inspired leaders to prioritize tree-planting as a solution. It evolved from a simple tree belt into a comprehensive sustainable development strategy by 2015, encompassing 22 countries. Mauritania, which hosts the project agency, has achieved modest successes, though the desert continues to advance at a rate of 6 kilometers per year[para. 7][para. 9]. As of 2020, only 4 million hectares had been restored, with the total reaching 18 million hectares when planned areas were included, providing benefits to 11 million people and creating about 350,000 jobs[para. 11][para. 12]. Significant scaling up is needed to meet the 2030 deadline[para. 13].

Project techniques vary by environment, with teams prioritizing native species that withstand climate change and offer value to local communities. The Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew, piloted restoration using 55 native species and traditional methods, resulting in more than 1 million plants established with over 50% survival rates in some cases[para. 16][para. 17]. China introduced denser sand-fixing grids and a mix of vegetation, improving results in Mauritania, Nigeria, and Ethiopia by stabilizing soil, enhancing water retention, and promoting rotational grazing. In Ethiopia, Chinese techniques helped restore 3,800 hectares and improved grassland yields[para. 19][para. 24][para. 27][para. 28][para. 29].

However, instability undermines these efforts. Nearly a third of Sahel countries have experienced coups, and the region faces growing extremism and terrorism. Violence disrupts restoration, as seen in Mali and Ethiopia, while rapid population growth (expected to hit 340 million by 2050) adds pressure[para. 31][para. 32][para. 33][para. 34][para. 35]. Funding remains a problem: Meeting Great Green Wall’s goals requires $33 billion more on top of $14 billion already invested. Governance, planning, and mismatched funding cycles have slowed progress[para. 37][para. 38][para. 39][para. 41].

Recognition of these challenges led to new initiatives like the “Great Green Wall Accelerator” in 2021, which pledged over $19 billion and improved international coordination. Monitoring databases showed recent restoration progress, with Mali, Niger, Sudan, Chad, and Ethiopia achieving significant results[para. 44][para. 45][para. 46]. Experts note that global support, local engagement, and sustained investment are essential for lasting success[para. 47][para. 48]. The project stands as both a test of Africa’s resilience and an emblem of international cooperation, including China’s growing role on the continent[para. 49].