Taliban controls Afghanistan: Security implications for India

Reports suggest that with the top commanders being killed of the Northern Resistance Front of Afghanistan, Panjshir has fallen to Taliban. Now all parts of the country are under the control of the Taliban that includes different factions within and the Haqqani Network. There is a need for a hard-nosed assessment about the implications of the change on India’s security. Experts globally paint a grim picture not only for India but for others particularly in the region.

There is no doubt that the region is going to emerge as a stronger epicentre of international terrorism. A more worrisome part is that various components of the Taliban as also it’s allies like Al Qaeda and IS-K are under the control or influence of the Pakistan, which, since its inception, is focused on creating problems for India using terrorism. Its policy of bleeding India through a thousand cuts remains unchanged. The present situation significantly favours the Pak Army/ISI. It has gained the much sought after ‘strategic depth’ against India and has unrestrained support of China against India. This situation demands an effective strategy keeping in view the moves of Pak controlled various factions of Taliban and its allies. These include not only the Al Qaeda and IS-K, but also the ISI created Jihadi groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), Jaish-e-Muhammad (JeM) and Hizb-ul-Mujahideen (HuM).
The warning given by Douglas London, a former CIA official, who was CIA’s counterterrorism Chief for South and Southeast Asia during 2016-2018 and in this capacity oversaw operations in Afghanistan merits attention. Pointing out that India has a good reason to worry, he stated: “Pakistan’s policies of supporting various jihadist groups and the Taliban were all done through the prism of Pakistan-India rivalry. They obviously see your country (India) as an existential threat and any issue and challenge to them is viewed through that prism”. In his assessment the close ties between the Taliban factions and the Kashmir specific terrorist outfits remain intact and the Sino-Indian standoff at the Indo-Tibet border has worsened the security calculus for India.

London brings out clearly the linkages between the ISI and the Haqqani Network: “The Haqqanis are in bed and in league with ISI”. On the capabilities of the Haqqani Network, he mentioned that Haqqanis have a vast and longstanding criminal network and they provided the teeth to the Taliban strategy to destabilise the Afghan National Government. Given this, the demand by the Haqqanis for a larger share in governance is not surprising.
Another expert. Dr Christine Fair, Professor of Security Studies at the Georgetown University in Washington plainly stated that the evolving situation in Afghanistan is the Pakistan’s project and that the Taliban could not have been a “capable terrorist organisation, that it is.” On Pakistan’s objective, she stated that Pakistan did not want a stable government in Afghanistan that was opposed to Pakistan and friendly to India during the last 20 years. This is an accurate assessment of the Pak machinations.

Rana Banerjee, a former Special Secretary, who is a known specialist on Pakistani Establishment’s nexus with terrorist outfits and the use of terrorism against India, in an interview gave graphic details of how the cache of arms hidden in the tunnels in Kandhar, which were intended to be used against the Russian invaders to Mullah Omar by the then Interior Minister Gen Naseerullah Babar. Colonel Sultan Amir Tarar, a former Pak Army’s SSG commando provided training to the Taliban terrorists. He was given the mystical name of ‘Imam”. Rana also revealed how in 1996, Pakistan assisted the Taliban militarily with convoys- with actual special services men accompanying their motorcycles and jeeps in the garb of common civilians at the time of moving into Kabul. Another important dimension that came out in the interview was the fact that during the last 20 years, Pakistan not only created Shuras in Quetta, Miranshah and Peshawar for Taliban but also provided assistance to Arabs, Uzbeks, Chechen rebels, Tajik Islamic rebel outfits which had come along with Osama bin Laden in addition to the Haqqanis.

There was a repeat of the above scenario this time too as mentioned by Amrullah Saleh and others. The attack on Kabul is stated to be the Pak attack. India’s former Ambassador to Kabul Gautam Mukhopadhaya has aptly described it as a “Pakistani invasion with an Afghan face”. The attack on Panjshir is reported to have been supported by the Pak Air Force.

There were earlier reports that Pakistan had pushed the LeT, JeM and HuM cadres to Afghanistan with a view to maintain deniability in view of the pressure from FATF. With hindsight it can be now said that it was a planned move to assist the Taliban to capture Afghanistan. The quick surrender by the Afghan National Army to Taliban without fight confirms the suspicion that it was manipulated by the Pindi Shura. According to some sources, the takeover was mainly due to the deals and not through force.

While there are factions in Taliban and the rivalry for getting substantial share by different factions would continue but this does not reduce the threat perception for India. Any expectation from the Taliban or any of its factions to control the terrorist outfits would be unrealistic. First, they don’t have the capability to do so. Second, they cannot go against the wishes of the Pindi Shura. The different factions are so much under the influence of the Pindi Shura that they cannot disobey the orders of their mentor.

India needs to chalk out urgently its strategy keeping in view of the current linkages of the Pak Establishment with different factions in Afghanistan. Al Qaeda and IS-K should also not be considered separate as far as India is concerned. Al Qaeda was sheltered by Pakistan after 2001 and IS-K was reported to have been created by ISI. While India has to take precautions in Kashmir, diplomatic efforts for coordinated action to have some control over the Govt in Kabul to not allow its territory by the terrorists are urgently needed. Russia, Iran and China are indeed worried about the support coming from Afghanistan to their terrorists. This situation would ultimately harm Pakistan as well but as this country is only seeing things through the prism of the India-Pak rivalry, it would continue with the policy of bleeding India through a thousand cuts and would be willing to bear any cost for it. China does not want support being given to ETIM from Afghanistan but it would be turning a blind eye to the deployment of terrorists against India from the region. This is the hard reality. Hence India’s options are limited to work with Russia and Iran. With Russia India has a mechanism to coordinate on this issue. Same arrangement needs to made with Iran and other neighbouring countries in the Central Asia. A combined pressure may have some impact.